- CME’s bitcoin futures calendar shows some correlation between futures expiry and bitcoin price
- It is, however, not definitive proof of manipulation
The CME Group’s Bitcoin futures calendar gives a look into the recent crash in Bitcoin’s price and what the markets could be like in the coming months.
Futures market – good or bad for crypto?
The effect of Bitcoin futures on the price of bitcoin has long been a debated one, especially since the futures market is only about a year old.
In December 2017, when Bitcoin futures first debuted, BTC reached its peak of almost $20,000 but has continued to decline since then.
One of the short-term effects of futures trading is that it gives a spike in trading volume when the future expires and thus, helps drive up the price.
When the idea of bitcoin futures trading was first brought up, many in the industry believed that they would have a significant effect on the price which was seen as more ‘wild’ at the time.
CME chairman emeritus Leo Melamed even said that futures would ‘tame the prices’
“We will regulate, make bitcoin not wild, nor wilder. We’ll tame it into a regular type instrument of trade with rules,” he said.
What might have happened
Looking at the futures calendar, it can be seen that the first trading dates of each of the futures coincide with the times when Bitcoin typically saw a decline in value which starts from the beginning of October to the end of December.
One theory behind this is that because the futures ‘postpone’ the sale of cryptocurrencies, it causes a short-term decline in the purchase of the currency, leading to a drop in value. Then, when the future expires and the coins are sold, there is a spike in the value of the coin.
All this, however, is merely speculative as BTC futures have not been in existence long enough to confirm or deny these speculations.
Also, many of the futures expiry dates listed are in the future and thus, only time will tell if they will have an effect o the price of Bitcoin or not.
