- Altcoin market shows repeated rising trendlines across three historical market cycles.
- RSI patterns mirror past bull runs with rounded peaks nearing the overbought zone.
- Current RSI resistance near 70–80 signals caution despite strong structural similarities.
A technical comparison of the altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) shows a consistent structure forming across three major cycles: 2015–2017, 2018–2021, and the ongoing 2022–2025 period. Shared by market analyst Moustache (@el\_crypto\_prof), the chart indicates that the current cycle is building along the same path as its predecessors, with rising trendlines and Relative Strength Index (RSI) movements tracking similar phases of accumulation and momentum.
In all three cycles, the altcoin market has followed a pattern of establishing higher lows along a steady upward-sloping trendline. These rising supports, visible in both the 2015–2017 and 2018–2021 cycles, preceded explosive growth phases that saw altcoin valuations expand rapidly.
The current cycle, which is taking place between 2022 and 2025, is headed in the same direction. The market has continued to show its higher low structure, which has persisted for a few months, and this implies that the main trend is still prevailing. The same buildup in cycles supports the argument that a similar macro one is taking place but does not imply a break by itself.
RSI Indicator Shows Similar Momentum Structure
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), used to gauge momentum and overbought conditions, also displays a recurring setup across the cycles. During previous market expansions, RSI moved upward, forming rounded peaks before breaking past the 70 level. These gains aligned with periods of strong altcoin performance.
In the current cycle, RSI is once again approaching the overbought mark, forming the same curved pattern seen before previous rallies. A green overlay in the RSI section, resembling volume intensity, highlights points of increasing momentum in the prior cycles. This overlay has begun to build again, indicating renewed interest in altcoin trading.
Resistance Near Overbought Zone Signals Caution
Despite the similarities in RSI structure, the index has yet to break through the critical 70–80 zone. Past cycles showed similar hesitation before eventual surges. Multiple failed attempts to cross this level may reflect temporary market uncertainty or ongoing resistance, which has historically preceded sharper moves once breached.
The chart presented by Moustache provides a technical reference point by aligning historical price behavior and RSI activity. Although no guarantees are implied, the mirrored structure across three cycles offers a factual benchmark.
