- Bitcoin dominance is close to historical resistance levels, and the Fed’s asset bottom signals a reversal.
- Analysts have pointed out that a great altcoin season always needs correct Fed rate cuts and more macro liquidity.
- Scottie Pippen has said that the altcoin season might begin on April 20.
Bitcoin dominance is heading toward a new key pivot level, with several analysts expecting a head-and-shoulders pattern reversal that may open the door to altcoins. In a post on X, Mister Crypto noted that the altcoin season index is almost as low as ever. He stated that this pattern commonly happens when altcoins surge, especially before attaining the parabolic trend.
His tweet correlates with a chart from CryptoELiTES on X showing that BTC.d is high, as previous tops indicate, while Fed total assets are at local lows.
CryptoELiTES noted, “The Fed is officially cornered! It’s time for Bitcoin Dominance to drop and the Altcoin rally to finally take off! ”
The visual correlation suggests that the BTC.d tops often anticipate an upcoming decline, something traditionally associated with the altcoin surge. At present, the total assets of the Fed seem to be coming out from another local bottom, a pattern typical of BTC dominance.
CryptoELiTES believes this may signify a rotation into altcoins, with Q2 2025 expected to mark the beginning of the next bounce.
Analysts Warn: Macro Conditions Not Aligned for Altseason
Matrixport’s analysts believe that the current altcoin market does not have sufficient support from policies in the macro economy and money supply. They outline three key conditions for altcoin sustainability: a favorable regime change at the Federal Reserve, a stablecoin hike, and increased macro liquidity.
Among these four, only stablecoin issuance seems to have made some concrete advancement. Since August, Tether (USDT) has increased by 26%, whereas USD Coin (USDC) has risen from $31bn to $60bn. However, increasing expectations of the federal funds rate and unresolved trade issues hinder optimism among investors in general.
The US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, recently affirmed that the organization has signaled it is not inclined to lower the interest rate. The Fed is monitoring the impact of policy adjustments and the Trump administration’s tariff plans. Some analysts have warned that inflation risks from the tariffs may slow the trend toward easing monetary policy.
However, even Ethereum has not been able to regain the market lead among altcoins. Additionally, it has shed nearly half of its value after the approval of the US-based spot Ether ETF. Matrixport also revealed that the interest from public investors was not sustained, as it was only observed to increase in the early days. Every single trend, from AI tokens to meme coins, has followed the classic pattern.
Scottie Pippen Fuels Hype With April 20 Prediction
Adding to the debate, NBA superstar Scottie Pippen made a rather fearless prediction on X. He opines that based on the historical approach, the biggest altcoin season may start as soon as April 20, 340 days after the last Bitcoin halving event.
Pippen attributed this to the last halving event that occurred on the 20th of April 2024, which saw block rewards halved to 3.125 BTC. He pointed out that previous alt seasons occurred around one year after similar supply shocks. The accumulation of spot Bitcoin ETFs such as Blackrock, which possesses over 570,000 BTC, also adds to the increased probabilities of a liquidity-driven altcoin cycle.
