Bitcoin’s trading activity has eased off since its mid-July fireworks, but the market is far from sleepy. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that on July 16, spot trading volume hit $10.22 billion, while futures volume surged to $60.17 billion, levels not seen for weeks. By August 7, both had come down, with spot volumes at $6.61 billion and futures at $41.05 billion. Even so, those figures are still well above the quiet early-July days, when spot activity dipped to $4.85 billion and futures to $33.82 billion.
The pullback doesn’t necessarily signal weakness. Rather, it looks like the market is catching its breath after a burst of trading enthusiasm. Futures markets, where traders often pile on leverage, drove much of July’s action, while the spot market’s relatively strong showing suggests there’s still solid buying interest underneath the speculation.
Bitcoin Breakout Scenario
Bitcoin is holding in a relatively tight range between $114,000 and $118,000. This consolidation can hint toward the next price action. However, some analysts are still bullish. Bitcoin price predictions point to the possibility of BTC climbing over 12% to around $133,300 later this month. Some forecasts are more cautious, noting that $115,500 is acting as a stiff ceiling that bulls will need to crack before any real breakout can happen.
The backdrop has been mixed. Rising institutional inflows into crypto investment products or ETFs have helped keep prices stable. Moreover, recent U.S. policy changes allowing private equity and crypto investments in 401(k) retirement accounts have given sentiment a lift. On August 8, Bitcoin was trading around $116,600, buoyed by that policy shift. But macroeconomic jitters haven’t gone away, a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and renewed tariff concerns briefly sent prices toward $115,200 earlier this week.
For now, the market’s tone feels like a pause rather than a retreat. Volumes may be down from July’s highs, but they remain meaningfully higher than early in the month. Bitcoin’s steady footing in the mid-$114,000 range shows that the market is waiting for the next catalyst. It can come from fresh institutional buying, macro news, or another wave of speculative energy.
