The cryptocurrency market is experiencing some concerning technical signals. Bitcoin’s capital inflows are continuing to decrease but have remained at elevated price levels. Ali, a market analyst, indicated that this situation is similar to the period of 2021-2022, when Bitcoin dropped more than 70% from its peak price. Additionally, the Realized Cap Net Position Change reflects that there has been a decrease in Capital Inflows forming Lower Highs against Capital Price forming Higher Highs.
Understanding the Decline in Capital Flow
Bitcoin‘s capital dynamics have told a very different story from its price action. The Realized Cap Net Position Change has been trending downwards despite price resiliency hinting that although existing holders have kept positions, additional capital injection into the market has slowed down significantly.
New data from blockchain analytics shows this trend to be true. BlackRock’s inaugural Bitcoin ETF has faced more than $2.7 billion in outflows in five consecutive weeks, signaling massive institutional outflows. This comes at the same time as Bitcoin trades at near highs, relating to professional investors reducing exposure regardless of the relative stability of prices.
Declining capital flows coupled with high price levels indicate that the existing holders are propping up the market instead of attracting new buyers. Therefore, any substantial selling pressure might start a rapid downturn because of the lack of sufficient buying appetite to take up the large entries.
Echoes of 2021-2022 – History Repeating Itself
The current market structure looks remarkably like the situation before Bitcoin’s major correction of 2021-2022. During that time frame, Bitcoin hit its all-time high of almost $69,000 in November 2021 when momentum indicators began to form lower highs signaling weakening strength regardless of the rising prices.
The bearish divergence that developed in late 2021 was hence an early warning signal of the downturn that followed. The Federal reserve rate hikes in March 2022 came during the point in time when markets were heavily leveraged, causing a wave of liquidations that sent Bitcoin into a massive and steep year-long decline.
Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative outflows of $426.13 million in the last day of December, a month for major outflows in general. Despite this, the presence of more mature infrastructure and acceptance of these systems largely within the institutions is a key difference compared to the environment in 2021-2022, potentially offering resilience against the worst downside scenarios.
Long-Term Holders Make Gains Despite Weakness
Amid falling capital flows and institutional withdrawals, there has been a consistent build-up of long-term holders. On-chain data shows that while the short-term holders have been offloading their positions, often at losses, long-term holders have been adding positions.
This pattern is seen in bitcoin markets over time, as investors stack up during times of volatility. The activist position of long-term investors (accumulating during periods of market fluctuations) indicates strong conviction that Bitcoin has a viable long-term proposition, despite potential challenges associated with Bitcoin’s technology in the short term.
Currently, around 70% of the amount of Bitcoin circulating is stored by addresses that have not moved their coins in more than six months. This concentration means less available liquid supply to be used in transactions. While this can help underpin prices during periods of stable demand, if any significant size long-term holder does sell it could have significant market impact.
Conclusion
Current bearish price action for Bitcoin reflects the same bearish divergence that occurred during the 2021-2022 bear market with institutional selling accelerating and new investments slowing down. Despite this, growing accumulation by large buyers, as well as growing infrastructure supporting the Bitcoin ecosystem creates some degree of protection against extreme downside risk. In the coming weeks, it will become clear whether this bearish divergence will result in further downside corrections or temporary consolidation, so prudent risk management will be an important activity for all market participants.
