Bitcoin ($BTC) has shown a decline in prices over the past day. At press time, $BTC stands at $82,651, with a minor 0.47% decrease over the past 24 hours. The trading volume decreased by 51.54% to reach $21.61B, while the market cap settled at $1.64T, indicating lesser market activity.
According to CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, the current Bitcoin ($BTC) on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s bull market cycle has reached its endpoint. The Realized Cap metric is the core element for this examination because it evaluates the average purchase cost of circulating Bitcoin by tracking on-chain transaction histories. This metric measures all capital invested into Bitcoin throughout its history
Recent market data indicates the Realized Cap is steadily growing yet Bitcoin’s Market Cap shows minimal progress. Fresh capital entering the ecosystem demonstrates a different value pattern because it does not boost market prices. The bear market behavioral pattern emerges during its initial phases of a typical market cycle. The increase in Realized Cap continues to rise while Market Cap fails to match it thus demonstrating that selling pressure drives price stability.
Market Dynamics Signal Weak Buy-Side Momentum
The price of Bitcoin’s Market Cap depends on the last traded price, not the volume of capital traded. Market prices tend to increase abruptly regardless of modest capital flow volume as purchase strength substantially exceeds selling strength. Large capital inflows have minimized their impact on price movements in market conditions. This dynamic underscores strong sell-side resistance, characteristic of bear market conditions.
Historical patterns reinforce this view. Low price increases followed major peaks like $100,000 because selling intent reached maximum saturation during increased trading volumes. The present market shows that significant investments such as institutional activity and ETFs do not lead to significant price changes.
Outlook Remains Cautious Amid Strong Sell Pressure
The CryptoQuant‘s CEO suggests that on-chain data may not capture off-chain movements, but significant capital transfers involving exchanges and custodians produce sufficient data reflection because of their magnitude. Blockchain activity data supports the accuracy of Realized Cap insights because both indicator sets are in mutual agreement.
Market history shows that correcting these forces demands an extended duration of accumulation and a reduction in selling pressure. The current market indicators point towards an unlikely bullish breakout soon signaling an early-stage bear market environment.
