- Whales have sold 30,000 BTC, and miners have also offloaded 15,000 BTC when the prices dip below $80,000.
- Bitcoin exchange reserves declined to 2018 levels while stablecoin buying power remains strong.
- A breakout of the RSI trendline indicates the possibility of a bullish trend in case the price of Bitcoin closes above $92,000.
Bitcoin’s market sentiment faces a complex mix of opposing pressures. CryptoQuant data shows that whales have sold more than 30,002 BTC in the past week, which is the highest value since January 2024. The 30-day change in the holdings of whales has become bearish, meaning whales are in a wait-and-see mode.
However, the behavior of the miners has also changed. On April 7, Bitcoin miners transferred $92.2 million worth of 15,000 BTC to exchanges, the second largest outflow this year. This came as the miner profit margins fell to an average of 33%, a level which has in the past indicated balance sheet mining stress. These sales seem to have been prevailing due to the low prices that sunk below $80,000 as evident from the blue graph of the outflow.
These two drivers, whale distribution and miner capitulation could have typically indicated an increase in downside risk. However, there are several related factors that suggest otherwise.
Exchange Reserves Plunge to 2018 Levels, SSR Points to Dry Powder
CryptoQuant analyst BorisVest notes that the amount of BTC on exchanges is 2.43 million, the lowest level since 2018. This is significantly lower than the 3.4 million BTC registered during the bull run cycle 2021.
The continuous outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges also points to accumulation and reduced selling pressure, which are usually bullish signs. In support of that view, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) for the market stands at 14.3.
A lower SSR indicates that there is a large number of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization, signifying a ready source of capital for re-entering the market. Alongside the decline in exchange balances, it now indicates a good potential for reactivation of purchases, especially if sentiment improves.
Accumulation rates are slightly lower, though the overall yearly growth remains stable and is the highest since February. The strong fundamental supports are at variance with short-term bearish pressures on traders, making the next directional cues important.
RSI Momentum Chart Hints at Impending Breakout
Renowned crypto analyst Dan Gambardello has identified a breakout pattern that has been established on Bitcoin’s weekly RSI chart. The momentum oscillator is approaching a declining trendline that has constrained the increase for months now. Historical data notes that when Bitcoin crossed similar RSI levels, its price surged even more.
Gambardello also identifies the $92,000 price mark as a key level to watch. A weekly candle close above this level would mean that the Bitcoin price is back in the bullish zone. This threshold is at the 20-week moving average level, which has been a widely used technical level in previous bullish trends.
However, unlike previous cycles, bitcoin was unable to sustain its price above this average during the period of a tightening monetary mean. The analyst also points out that quantitative tightening is expected to decelerate in the coming months, which should be beneficial.
