Bitcoin’s recent price action has underscored the significance of the 200-day moving average (200DMA) at approximately $85,000 as a crucial market structure level. Over the past two days, momentum reignited once Bitcoin reclaimed this level, reinforcing its role as a critical technical threshold. However, the cryptocurrency remains in a tight range, facing resistance at higher levels, with a breakout yet to be confirmed.
According to Glassnode,Bitcoin’s price currently trades between the 200DMA and the 111-day moving average (111DMA), which sits at $95,200. This positioning suggests that until Bitcoin decisively breaks above and successfully retests the $93,000 level, uncertainty will persist. Other notable technical benchmarks include the 365-day moving average (365DMA) at $75,500 and the 200-week moving average (200WMA) at $45,100, both of which represent longer-term structural support levels.
The price action suggests that traders are closely watching the 111DMA as the next major resistance. If Bitcoin surpasses this level with strong momentum, it could pave the way for a sustained move toward six-figure territory. However, failure to break through may result in further consolidation or even a potential retest of lower support levels.
Short-Term Losses: Bullish or Cautious Outlook?
From an on-chain perspective, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price currently stands at $93,500. This metric represents the average acquisition cost for short-term market participants, making it a critical level to reclaim for bullish momentum to take hold. As of now, the STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits at -0.06, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, sitting on unrealized losses of around 6%. Historically, when the STH MVRV is negative, it often signals weak market sentiment, as short-term traders are reluctant to sell at a loss. A return to profitability for STHs could serve as a catalyst for renewed buying pressure.
Bitcoin’s price action and technical positioning suggest a pivotal moment for traders and investors alike. The battle between the 200DMA and the 111DMA will likely determine the short-term trajectory. If Bitcoin manages to break and hold above $93,500, it could confirm a bullish breakout, potentially pushing prices toward the $100,000 psychological level. Conversely, failure to reclaim this level could prolong the consolidation phase, with risk skewed toward the downside. If short-term holders continue to hold losses, selling pressure could increase, leading to a potential retest of the lower support zones around $85,000 and $75,500.
