Bitcoin has already surpassed the $100,000 milestone in 2025, and the momentum suggests there may be room for further gains before the year ends. The key question now is whether BTC can advance toward $135,000, $150,000, or even reach the highly optimistic $200,000 level. Let’s examine the primary drivers behind the recent rally and the critical factors to monitor in the second half of the year.
What’s Driving Bitcoin in 2025?
The ETF Boom
One of the biggest catalysts behind Bitcoin’s rally this year is the surge in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). So far in 2025, these funds have pulled in over $19 billion in inflows, and that number keeps climbing. ETFs now hold 6.8% of all Bitcoin, thanks to a wave of institutional demand that simply didn’t exist a few years ago.
A Pro-Crypto White House
The 2024 U.S. presidential election also played a major role. The current president entered office as an outspoken crypto advocate and even pledged to create a Bitcoin reserve as part of his campaign. That promise sparked massive interest from both retail and institutional investors, fueling Bitcoin’s mainstream integration.
Fed Policy & Interest Rates
Monetary policy remains front and center. Markets expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2025, with the first cut initially penciled in for June. So far, rates remain unchanged, but growing signs of economic slowdown could push the Fed toward an aggressive pivot later this year.
Key Factors to Watch in the Second Half of 2025
As we move into the second half of 2025, Bitcoin traders and investors are watching several critical factors that could determine whether BTC pushes toward $150,000, or even higher, or faces another round of corrections. The market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, policy decisions, and investor sentiment, so here’s what to keep an eye on:
- U.S. Dollar (DXY) moves. Bitcoin often benefits when the U.S. dollar weakens, as a softer dollar typically signals easier monetary policy and greater liquidity in the financial system. If the Federal Reserve follows through on expected rate cuts later this year, the dollar could lose strength, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if the Fed remains hawkish, BTC could face resistance in pushing higher.
- Trade wars and global tensions. Rising trade disputes between the U.S., China, and other major economies introduce uncertainty that can work both for and against Bitcoin. On one side, tighter capital controls and geopolitical instability tend to increase demand for decentralized assets as investors seek alternatives to traditional markets. On the flip side, if these tensions escalate into a full-blown economic slowdown, risk-off sentiment could dominate, driving capital toward safe-haven assets like gold, the Japanese yen, or the Swiss franc instead of Bitcoin.
- Adoption and integration. One of the strongest long-term drivers for Bitcoin is adoption. The momentum seen in 2024 and early 2025 continues, with more companies and financial institutions integrating Bitcoin into their services. Wider acceptance for payments, investment products, and even government-level reserves can provide sustained demand and long-term price support, making this a key factor to monitor.
- ETF inflows. The rise of Bitcoin ETFs has been a game changer in 2025, bringing institutional money into the crypto space at an unprecedented pace. If inflows into these ETFs continue at the current rate or accelerate, it could provide the liquidity needed to propel Bitcoin past $150,000 and potentially set new all-time highs. A slowdown, however, might indicate cooling institutional interest, which could cap upside potential.
- Historical patterns. In previous bull cycles, Bitcoin has tended to outperform in the latter half of the year. If history repeats itself, the current consolidation could be the calm before a major breakout rally.
Technical Analysis Perspective
Long-term chart analysis shows Bitcoin is still in a bullish phase and nearing the end of its recent pullback. The price has touched the ascending trendline and is starting to show signs of a potential rebound. A bullish engulfing pattern has formed, hinting at the possibility of a new upward leg. However, the pattern isn’t particularly strong since both candlesticks are relatively small. Still, the daily chart keeps Bitcoin above the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing the overall bullish sentiment.
The weekly chart backs this outlook, showing a new high on July 14, 2025, when Bitcoin briefly climbed above $123,000 before pulling back. The shooting star pattern that appeared in July could be a warning sign for short- and medium-term buyers, signaling potential weakness. However, for long-term holders, this correction looks more like a healthy pause before the next big move, potentially pushing toward $150,000 or even $200,000.
Both technical and fundamental factors point to the possibility of Bitcoin making another big move this year, with a potential target of $150,000. If you’re looking for more trading insights and educational resources, check out AMarkets website. We offer daily market analysis, a complete trading guide, video tutorials, and plenty of other tools to help you stay ahead in the market.
This article is not intended as financial advice. Educational purposes only.
