Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has stirred the pot on X (formerly Twitter) today. He mused that Bitcoin’s volatility “has significantly gone down in this cycle,” and that we’ve been stuck “in ranges for long periods of time.” His punchline? Don’t pencil in a peak this Q4; instead, plan on Q4 2026, or maybe even 2027, for the next major market top.
Right now, the BTC price is lounging around $114,223, barely budging, up just 0.26% today, with a high of $114,880 and a low of $113,675. That lack of drama on the price chart really shows his point: the usual wild swings have quieted down.
In fact, implied volatility has slumped to its lowest levels since late 2023. Recent data shows that when Bitcoin’s IV last touched these depths, it promptly shot up by about 50% in the following weeks, a classic calm-before-the-storm behavior. On the realized side, TradingView data confirms that 30-day volatility has tumbled from peaks near 85% in early 2024 to roughly 28% over the past quarter.
Are We in a New Phase?
What does all this mean? Van de Poppe argues that without the trademark frenzy of past cycles, we’re in for a longer run. Instead of the neat four-year halving-to-top cadence, this cycle could stretch an extra year or more, meaning bigger eventual rewards for anyone holding through.
Not everyone’s on the same page, though. Veteran trader Peter Brandt still sees a late-2025 peak in the $125,000–$150,000 neighborhood, assuming the Bitcoin price reclaims its long-term parabolic trendline. And a few Bitcoin price predictions warn that if support around $110,000 falters, we might briefly revisit $100,000 before turning back up.
On the institutional side, liquidity has never been deeper. Bybit’s June report, produced with Block Scholes, notes that hefty ETF inflows helped push implied volatility down to around 28%, a far cry from the thin-book days of 2017 or 2020. Big buyers now move blocks of BTC without shaking the rails.
So, what’s a crypto investor to do? If van de Poppe is right, patience could pay off handsomely, just be ready to lock in profits a year or two later than usual. As he put it, a “longer cycle, way higher rewards” might be the new mantra for Bitcoin bulls heading into late 2026 and beyond.
