India’s latest move against unlicensed gaming platforms did not target a casino or a sportsbook. It hit two of the most recognizable prediction market platforms in the world. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has issued a blocking order against Polymarket, and officials are preparing a parallel action against Kalshi as soon as Friday, according to the original report from ThePrint. Both platforms had continued to accept users from India after the country’s blanket ban on real-money online games took effect on May 1.
The crackdown is not administrative theater. It leans directly on Section 69A of the Information Technology Act, a provision that gives the government power to direct internet service providers to block access when a website threatens national security or public order. Intermediaries that fail to comply face punishment of up to seven years in prison and steep financial penalties. The language may sound broad, but its enforcement against prediction markets signals a deliberate expansion of the online gaming ban into a grey area of user-funded information markets.
A legal framework built for escalation
Earlier this year, India enacted an online gaming law that explicitly prohibits real-money games, related advertising, and financial transactions connected to them. That law already covered traditional casino games and sports betting. Friday’s enforcement action makes plain that prediction markets—where users stake capital on the outcome of events—fall squarely within its scope. Polymarket and Kalshi operate on the premise that forecasting markets generate useful information, but under Indian law, the distinction between a research tool and a gambling mechanism collapses as soon as money changes hands.
The blocking orders compel internet service providers to restrict access, yet they do not automatically shut down the platforms themselves. Polymarket and Kalshi are headquartered outside India, and their smart contracts or settlement layers may still run on public blockchains. That structural friction is already a familiar headache for regulators elsewhere. In the U.S., a landmark crypto bill is facing a last-minute challenge from banks, highlighting just how unsettled the legal treatment of crypto-adjacent activity remains globally.
The precedent no one wanted to test
Prediction markets have long occupied a jurisdictional no-man’s-land. They resemble financial derivatives in their payout structures but attract the same regulatory scrutiny as gaming platforms when they allow direct fiat or crypto wagers. India’s decision to name specific platforms—and to move against them almost simultaneously—suggests a coordinated effort rather than an isolated enforcement pulse. It also sends a message to smaller, less visible operators: the ban is not symbolic.
What makes the Kalshi action notable is timing. Kalshi is a US-regulated designated contract market, not an offshore entity. The fact that it is still accessible inside India despite its regulated status shows how easily a platform’s domestic compliance posture can become irrelevant the moment it crosses a border. Users inside India likely will continue to find workarounds, including VPNs and decentralized front-ends, but the legal risk for intermediaries that facilitate payments or host mirror sites is now explicit.
What remains unsettled
The blocking order answers the immediate question of whether India’s ban would extend to prediction markets. It does not settle the harder question of how the rules apply to decentralized versions that lack a single company to block. Protocols that run on smart contracts, where governance is distributed and no legal entity accepts user funds, present an enforcement puzzle that neither Indian law nor most global regulators have resolved. The coming weeks will test whether the government goes beyond ISP-level blocking and targets on-ramp providers, app stores, or financial settlement layers.
For now, the practical effect is that a significant user base loses easy access to two prominent markets at a moment when global event volatility pushes volumes higher. Indian retail traders who used Polymarket to express directional views on elections, economic data, or geopolitics will have to either leave the ecosystem or climb over the barriers the government is building. It is an abrupt tightening that few in the prediction market community saw coming with this speed.
