Polymarket traders have slashed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to its lowest level ever, marking a sharp turn in sentiment on the most significant piece of crypto market structure legislation to advance through Congress in years. According to the original report, the odds tumbled as Senate negotiations over ethics provisions remained deadlocked, pushing the prospect of a floor vote further into the distance.
Prediction markets have become a real-time barometer for policy outcomes, and the steady erosion in CLARITY Act odds reflects a deepening disbelief that Congress can deliver on crypto legislation this year. The bill, designed to clarify which digital assets fall under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission versus the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has been stuck in procedural limbo for weeks. What once looked like a plausible pre-summer vote is now being priced as a long shot.
A Bill Caught in a Political Vise
The decline in Polymarket’s contract comes down to one stubborn sticking point: ethics provisions. The exact nature of the dispute remains vague, but the Senate calendar is unforgiving. With midterm elections approaching, legislative bandwidth shrinks dramatically. Lawmakers are reluctant to take tough votes on crypto market structure when more immediate political priorities crowd the agenda.
Earlier this year, a concerted push by the banking lobby nearly killed the bill before
