Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stirred the markets this week after posting a striking Fibonacci-based take on Cardano (ADA). Sharing a weekly chart that overlays this cycle’s price action on top of the last one, Martinez wrote, “Cardano $ADA topped at the 1.272 Fib last cycle. Similar price action now points to a $3–$6 range for this cycle!” A call that, if realized, would put ADA many multiples above today’s levels.
At the time of writing, ADA is trading just under $1, roughly $0.90, with a market capitalization placing it among the top ten crypto assets. Martinez’s chart (the tweet includes a detailed TradingView weekly layout) compares the structure of the current rally to the previous cycle and uses Fibonacci extension levels to estimate where a full bull run could terminate.
In the earlier cycle, ADA’s rally respected the 1.272 extension before topping out; Martinez argues the same geometry is unfolding now, and that the equivalent extension this cycle would translate to a target band roughly between $3 and $6. Some analysts have highlighted the implications for bulls.
The Bullish and Bearish Case
Supporters of the bullish thesis point to Cardano’s steady progress on scaling and adoption. In 2025, Cardano’s Hydra layer-2 rollout and related developer activity have been focal points for the ecosystem. Hydra aims to materially increase throughput and lower fees, which would make DeFi and dApp activity more attractive on Cardano.
The network has also seen partnerships and institutional coverage moves that bulls say could help re-rate ADA if adoption follows. Those fundamental threads are the typical non-price catalysts bulls will point to when connecting technical projections to reality.
Not everyone views a $3–$6 outcome as likely in the near term. Several analysts’ base cases remain more conservative; some place near-term ADA targets around $1–$1.50 or $2 under bullish but realistic adoption scenarios. Fibonacci projections are useful for mapping potential resistance zones, but they’re not guarantees. Market liquidity, macro risk appetite, on-chain adoption, and competition from other smart-contract platforms all influence whether those levels become realistic price targets.
Ali Martinez’s 1.272 Fib observation and $3–$6 band is a bold, chart-driven scenario that grabs attention because of the magnitude of the upside implied. The path to those numbers would require both a sustained technical breakout and tangible ecosystem momentum (scaling via Hydra, increasing DeFi activity, and institutional interest are the usual suspects). Traders and investors should treat the call as a high-reward technical thesis, one that should be balanced against more conservative forecasts and the usual crypto risk factors.
