Glassnode’s latest on-chain update has the market talking. In a tweet, the analytics firm said the average Bitcoin (BTC) held by so-called whales, entities that own between 100 and 10,000 BTC, has fallen steadily since November 2024 and now sits at about 488 BTC per whale, a level Glassnode notes was last seen in December 2018.
The chart accompanying the message shows a clear downshift in that cohort’s average stake, and for many traders, the number raises an immediate question: are the biggest holders quietly distributing their coins, or is the whale population becoming broader and shallower?
There are a handful of natural ways to read the move. One possibility is that some very large holders have been trimming positions, moving coins on chain, perhaps to exchanges, perhaps to other wallets, and in the process reducing the mean stash per entity.
That kind of redistribution can look worrying if inflows to exchanges accelerate, because exchange transfers have often preceded selloffs in past cycles. But the same on-chain signal can also reflect a healthier dispersion: if more entities cross the 100-BTC threshold, the average drops even as total supply in the cohort remains steady. In other words, the metric alone tells you that the average is lower, not why.
Context Matters
The decline has come during a period of intense market attention after the strong multi-month rally of 2024–25, when profit-taking and institutional rebalancing were visible in several corners of the market. If big holders are reallocating risk, locking gains, moving into stablecoins, or hedging with derivatives, a falling average per whale could simply be the on-chain fingerprint of that process.
Equally, if those coins are flowing to exchanges, traders will want to watch order books and exchange balances closely for early signs of selling pressure. Price action so far has been mixed, and that makes the metric harder to interpret as a pure bullish or bearish signal.
Bitcoin has remained in the upper ranges of its recent trading band and, while momentum has not been uniformly strong, liquidity has been sufficient for buyers to absorb a lot of the recent flow. Derivatives desks and options traders are watching for a decisive breakout and seasonal patterns. September has historically been a choppier month for crypto, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to any short-term call.
What should market participants look for next? First, the direction of exchange inflows and outflows; a sustained rise in exchange balances would lean toward the view that larger holders are preparing to sell, while net outflows would suggest coins are being taken off market into long-term custody.
Second, the count of entities in the 100–10k BTC bracket: an increase there would support the idea that supply is simply being spread across more wallets. Finally, keep an eye on derivatives positioning and macro headlines, options expiries, price predictions, major economic data releases and central bank commentary have all moved crypto markets before, and could amplify whatever the on-chain data is hinting at.
At bottom, Glassnode’s tweet is a useful signpost, not a market verdict. The drop to roughly 488 BTC per whale is a clear change from the heights seen during the recent rally, but whether it presages a deeper distribution of supply or a benign broadening of the holder base depends on related flow data and price action in the coming days.
For traders and investors who pay attention to on-chain signals, the sensible response is to fold this datapoint into a wider watchlist, exchange flows, wallet counts and derivatives positioning, rather than treating it as a standalone signal that settles the debate about where Bitcoin goes next.
