On-chain analytics firm Glassnode warned Monday that “all $Bitcoin cohorts have now decisively moved into distribution, led by the 10–100 $BTC group,” a development the firm says signals broadening sell-side pressure across the market. The observation, posted on Glassnode’s social feed and backed by its cohort flow indicators, points to a synchronized shift from accumulation to selling across wallet sizes, with mid-sized holders (10–100 BTC) spearheading the move.
The move comes as Bitcoin trades in lower ranges compared with recent highs. As of this morning, Bitcoin was changing hands around $111,500, down from the mid-summer spike but still well above pre-2025 levels. The coin’s intraday and week-to-week swings have been large as profit-taking and shifting macro signals test market conviction.
Why the Glassnode Signal Matters
In on-chain parlance, distribution means that cohorts of addresses that previously accumulated coins are now moving coins onto exchanges or into wallets that are spending, i.e., selling pressure is increasing. The fact that distribution is broad-based across cohorts is important: it implies selling is not isolated to new entrants or a single whale, but spans a range of holders, which can make price support more fragile if buyers don’t absorb the flow.
Glassnode singled out the 10–100 BTC group, often described as the mid-sized “whale” cohort, as leading the distribution, a sign that holders who amassed positions earlier this cycle are taking profits. That on-chain selling has shown up in realized profit numbers: long-term holders recently realized roughly $1.96 billion in profits during a sizable profit-taking day, a volume of cashing out that coincided with a meaningful price pullback.
Those profit-taking events can amplify distribution signals because realized gains often motivate additional selling. The picture is not entirely bearish. Some Glassnode metrics previously showed a falling percentage of Bitcoin held on exchanges, recently reported near multi-year lows, which historically tightens available sell liquidity and can be bullish if demand remains.
A lower on-exchange supply can create a supply shock during strong buying periods. However, Glassnode’s cohort distribution call suggests that even as exchange reserves decline overall, clusters of holders are still choosing to sell into the market, a nuance that complicates the simple “low exchange supply = bullish” narrative.
From a price-action standpoint, the combination of broad distribution and profit-taking raises the odds of a consolidation or correction in the near term unless fresh demand re-emerges. On-chain analysts and commentators have started flagging a late-cycle maturity reading in some metrics, suggesting the current rally may be entering a more vulnerable phase where tops and retracements become likelier. Market commentaries point to downside scenario ranges if distribution persists and buyers retreat.
Traders will be watching Bitcoin price predictions, key price bands and liquidity: if buyers step in around the $100k area, the market could absorb selling without a cascade; if those levels fail and distribution continues, further downside toward lower four-figure supports (relative to current price bands) would become a realistic possibility, especially given how concentrated realized profits have been.
Glassnode’s finding that all cohorts are now in distribution is a stark on-chain signal: selling is broad, not isolated. That doesn’t guarantee a crash, but it raises the bar for bulls. Fresh demand (institutional or retail) will need to absorb a wider base of sellers to keep the price rising. For traders and investors, the coming days will be about seeing whether demand can match the distributed supply; if it can’t, expect consolidation or a corrective leg lower; if it can, the distribution may prove temporary profit-taking on the path higher.
