Bitcoin market finds itself at 504 days into the most recent halving cycle and analysts believe it has passed into a mature bull. Axel Adler Jr. believes that the trend of the market is quite similar to the past cycles with a significant variation in the institutional involvement and distribution patterns.
In March 2025, Bitcoin shot up to almost 70,000 and had an enormous spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD) the number showing how much is spent by long-term holders.
In contrast to the previous cycles, the following sets of distribution above 98,000 and above 117,000 were not able to exceed the heights of March. Such a behavior emphasizes a more gradual, sustainable process of redistribution as a result of institutional demand.
Long-Term Holder Dynamics
The data show that long-term holders (LTHs) are selling their supply in batches. Peaks in the past happened at times when markets were flooded by retail-driven selling but institutional absorption is currently extending the tops of the cycle.
All distribution waves experience supply being tapped out following new all time highs, but the market has soaked it up without a precipitous fall.
The change is an indication of a structural maturity of the market of Bitcoin. As the institutional involvedness increases, redistribution becomes less acute indicating that the peaks of future cycles might be formed over a longer period.
Indicators for Bitcoin Cycle Peak
The final sign of a cycle peak, the so-called Peak Flag, has not reached yet. This flag is typically seen when the price of Bitcoin surges to approximately 11 times the LTH realized price- a ratio that coincides with market overheat in the past. Adler predicts that the optimal window in this signal will be October-November 2025.
This can be the blow-off top of the current cycle, should it be accompanied by a new wave of major holder spending and increased volatility. This will be until the market is in an extended distribution stage where the selling pressure of the market is high but regulated.
Outlook and Implications
Institutional Bitcoin demand, segmented selling and no clear peak flag all indicate that the current cycle of Bitcoin has yet to reach its peak. The timeline indicates that the critical point will be late 2025 with historical cycles having a tendency to peak after 18-24 months following a halving event.
During its price compression between $70,000 and 117,000, the market audience is paying close attention to the actions of long-term holders and the VDD spikes.
Having followed historical patterns, the upcoming giant rally would be the complexion of style of whether Bitcoin seems to gain entry into another phase of all-time highs or another degree of protracted consolidation.
