Bitcoin’s recent price action is looking very different from U.S. equities, and CryptoQuant says the gap has now become the longest decoupling between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 since 2020. In a recent market note, the analytics firm said the break started after the October 10 liquidation event, when roughly 70,000 BTC in open interest was wiped out in a single session, effectively erasing more than six months of leverage build-up. Since then, Bitcoin has kept sliding even as the S&P 500 held up better for much of the same stretch, a sign that crypto has been dealing with its own structural damage rather than simply following the broader risk mood.
The latest market data shows Bitcoin trading around $68,432, down slightly on the day, after a volatile stretch that Reuters has linked to thin liquidity, a softer risk backdrop, and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy. Reuters reported in February that Bitcoin had already given back all of its post-election gains and that thinner market depth was making price swings more violent. That backdrop matters now because a market with less liquidity tends to react harder when selling pressure appears, especially after a major leverage flush.
Growing Market Stress
At the same time, U.S. stocks have begun to wobble more visibly. Reuters said the S&P 500 closed at 6,624.70 on March 18 and was down about 3% for 2026 at that point. By March 20, the index was still under pressure as worries about the Iran conflict, higher oil prices, and sticky inflation weighed on sentiment, with the S&P 500 falling 1.51% that day. A Reuters market quote page also showed the index opening at 6,594.66 on March 20 after a previous close of 6,606.49, showing how quickly the mood has shifted in recent sessions.
The disconnect is especially notable because Bitcoin has often behaved like a high-beta tech trade in risk-off moments. CryptoQuant’s point is not just that the correlation weakened, but that Bitcoin was already under heavy internal pressure before equities started to weaken in earnest. That is why the current move looks less like a clean macro trade and more like a crypto-specific deleveraging cycle layered on top of a broader market correction. Reuters recently noted that Bitcoin’s market depth has shrunk and that the asset remains highly sensitive to macro and geopolitical stress, which fits the current pattern.
The latest headlines have not helped. Reuters reported this month that Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $112,000 from $143,000 after U.S. crypto legislation stalled, while also warning that Bitcoin could sink to $58,000 in a recession scenario. Fed policy has also stayed cautious, with the central bank holding rates steady last week and investors still trying to gauge whether inflation pressures from energy can ease soon. For now, Bitcoin appears to be trading less like a macro twin of the S&P 500 and more like a market still digesting a violent liquidation and a more fragile liquidity backdrop.
