The long-term market dynamics of Bitcoin are in a new round of speculation with an early Bitcoin investor and entrepreneur, Michael Terpin, publishing a new price forecast before the next halving period. Terpin says that Bitcoin may hit a cyclical low of about 60,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026, which will prepare what he deems may be a major accumulation phase before the market is propelled by new demand in 2028 and 2029.
Price Weakness Before the Next Expansion Phase
The forecast arrives when the institutional demand, market sentiment, and macroeconomic uncertainty remain to affect the multi-year performance of Bitcoin. Although most analysts hold that historically halvings cause significant bull runs within 12-18 months, Terpin is more optimistic that the biggest accumulation wave will not actually start until the next halving and that the most significant price movement will be experienced near the end of the decades.
A possible $60,000 floor in 2026, in such a case, would be a regulated correction, and not an entire market collapse.
Accumulation Expected Between 2028 and 2029
The implication of this analysis by Terpin is that the long-term investors, institutions, and sovereign may consider strategic accumulation of Bitcoin in the bottoming period, when exposure is maximized before supply shocks can tighten liquidity once more. Historically, the exponential price expansions have been preceded by a long accumulation period with the scarcity force created by the halving-driven effect of Bitcoin exerting an upward pressure with the demand back.
As the following halving is predicted to decrease the block rewards of Bitcoin again, the forces of scarcity are set to increase. Should the accumulation actually increase two to three years later, the market may observe the same tendencies as previous cycles with post-halving consolidation eventually leading to establishing the grounds of significant price increase.
Market Caution Remains Despite Bullish Long-Term View
Nevertheless, volatility is not rejected in the perspective of Terpin. Even a bottom of about $60,000 would still imply that Bitcoin needs to absorb macroeconomic changes, regulatory modifications and evolving investor behavior. The growing institutional interest, the growing spot ETF markets and the growing perception of Bitcoin as a strategic asset might also impact the timing and magnitude of the price corrections.
In the meantime, the forecast supports one of the long-held hypotheses among market observers, namely that the value of Bitcoin can change over the short run, yet structural demand and supply limits will persist in supporting long-term growth opportunities. According to the forecast by Terpin, 2026 might not be a top or a crash year, but a turning point to serious investors who would be ready to take the initial step into the next big growth of the market.
