Bitcoin just touched its lowest level in 20 months, and the way it got there was brutal. A $397 million wave of liquidations cascaded through the market, forcing leveraged traders out and dragging the price toward $60,000. The trigger was forced selling, but the deeper rot is a seventh straight week of ETF outflows. Here is what’s happening with BTC and the levels that matter now.
Bitcoin is trading near $61,665 on June 25, 2026, roughly flat on the day but down about 4.2% over the past week after dipping to a 20-month low near $60,000 (live BTC price on CoinGecko). It remains more than 50% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 24, deep in Extreme Fear, with a 30-day average of 19 confirming the fear has been persistent rather than a one-day event.
The drop has a clear immediate cause and a deeper structural one. Both matter.
The trigger: a $397 million liquidation cascade
The spark for the latest leg down was a concentrated wave of forced selling. Bitcoin liquidations surged 192% in 24 hours to about $397 million, with long positions making up over 80% of the total.
This is a classic feedback loop. Traders went into this week heavily leveraged long. As the price dipped, those positions got force-liquidated, and the resulting sales pushed the price lower, triggering still more liquidations. Bitcoin broke through critical support in the process. It is the kind of violent, self-reinforcing move that flushes out excess leverage, often sharply, before the market can stabilize.
The structural driver: ETF outflows hit week seven
Underneath the liquidation spike is a slower, grinding problem. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are on pace for a seventh straight week of net redemptions, a sustained institutional withdrawal that has drained steady demand from the market.
This is the real reason rebounds keep failing. Liquidations cause the sharp drops, but the ETF outflows are the persistent pressure preventing recovery. A modest inflow day on June 23 was not enough to turn the tide, which signals that sellers are still absorbing demand and the market may be in a distribution phase. Until that outflow trend reverses, bounces are likely to be sold.
The macro backdrop making it worse
Two macro forces are compounding the pressure. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting removed its easing language and turned hawkish under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with Bank of America now expecting three rate hikes in 2026. That has strengthened the dollar and lifted Treasury yields, both headwinds for non-yielding Bitcoin. At the same time, crypto is selling off alongside AI and tech stocks, with NVIDIA recently slipping below a $5 trillion market cap as institutions trim risk. Bitcoin has fallen almost in lockstep, not because they are fundamentally linked, but because they have become part of the same institutional risk trade.
The One Number That Matters Now
Despite the crash, corporate buyers keep accumulating. Strategy bought another 520 BTC and Strive added 759 BTC at around $65,850 average, signaling that institutional conviction has not vanished even at these levels. Retail positioning also remains elevated, with long positioning around 67.4% even as the price falls, a sign that the dip-buying mentality persists.
The number to watch is whether that accumulation can absorb the ETF selling. So far it has not been enough, but continued corporate buying builds a base. The risk, flagged by miner Jiang Zhuoer, is that Strategy’s mNAV has fallen to 0.72, near the 0.7 low from the 2022 bull-to-bear transition, and that a genuine BTC bottom historically formed about six months after that signal. His target is a $42,000 to $44,000 bottom by late 2026, a reminder the worst may not be over.
BTC/USD: Key Levels to Watch
On the downside, the 200-week moving average near $62,457 is critical support, with $59,000 the next target if it fails. A break there opens the deeper $55,000 region that some analysts flag. On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim $65,000 to ease pressure, then $68,000, where June’s forced selling actually peaked days before the bottom last time, a level that now acts as resistance.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin at $61,665, just off a 20-month low, was driven there by a $397 million liquidation cascade layered on top of a seventh week of ETF outflows and a hawkish-Fed, strong-dollar macro backdrop. Fear is deep and persistent, with the index at 24.
Corporate buyers like Strategy keep accumulating, which is the offsetting force, but it has not yet overcome the structural ETF selling. Watch the $62,457 and $59,000 supports closely. A recovery likely needs the ETF outflows to reverse, and some analysts see a deeper bottom by late 2026 before this turns. Until then, the path of least resistance stays lower.
FAQ
What is the Bitcoin price today?
Bitcoin is trading near $61,665 on June 25, 2026, roughly flat on the day but down about 4.2% over the past week after dipping to a 20-month low near $60,000. It remains over 50% below its October 2025 all-time high.
Why is Bitcoin crashing?
The immediate trigger was a liquidation cascade of $397 million, over 80% from long positions. The deeper driver is a seventh straight week of Bitcoin ETF outflows, compounded by a hawkish Fed, a strong dollar, and a selloff in AI and tech stocks.
How low can Bitcoin go?
The critical support is the 200-week moving average near $62,457, with $59,000 the next target and the $55,000 region below that. Miner Jiang Zhuoer projects a potential bottom of $42,000 to $44,000 by late 2026, though corporate buyers continue accumulating.
Are institutions still buying Bitcoin?
Yes. Strategy bought another 520 BTC and Strive added 759 BTC at around $65,850 average. Corporate accumulation continues even as ETF outflows pressure the price, signaling that some institutional conviction remains.
When will Bitcoin recover?
A recovery likely requires the Bitcoin ETF outflow trend to reverse. Based on historical patterns, including Strategy’s mNAV falling to 0.72, some analysts believe a genuine bottom may not form until late 2026.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile. Always do your own research.
