The current convergence of major technical levels by Bitcoin shows a market in an inflection point. Bitcoin shifted from $111,157 to $111,634 during a 24-hour period ending October 25, trading within a narrow range that has captured trader’s attention. The current evaluation of the cost-based distribution indicates that they are not random figures. They represent actual accumulation areas where significant capital has entered the marketplace.
An Overview of Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution
The cost-based distribution heat map has emerged as one of the most instructive tools in the understanding of Bitcoin’s market structure. In contrast to traditional technical analysis that focuses solely on price action, this on-chain metric demonstrates exactly where holders bought their positions and thus allows for an objective way of determining true support and resistance
Cost Basis Distribution displays the total Bitcoin supply held by addresses within the average cost basis of respective price ranges. This transparency gives the traders an unprecedented understanding of market psychology and can be demonstrated when investors tend to hold their stance or make profits.
The latest data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s $117,000 level has become a key accumulation zone, with approximately 73,000 BTC now being held at this cost level. This quantity of supplies creates an inherent level of resistance by having the holders at this price level statistically placed to make profits.
The Conflict Between $111K Support vs $117K Resistance
The recent action on Bitcoin can be characterized as a tale of indecisiveness, with bulls and bears battling at a very high level of trading. Support at $111,160 has been particularly strong, and every time that Bitcoin has traded back to this price in the last few weeks buyers have jumped in, as a buying or accumulation opportunity.
On the other hand, there is resistance at $117,630 that has been a more difficult test. Clearing this ceiling would likely create a surge in buying activity as breakout traders and momentum type strategies kick in. Of course, the quantity of supply at this level likely means many holders are also poised to take profits, creating a natural selling pressure.
Investors in Bitcoin ETFs have had a large impact on price movement. In early October 2025, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $3.55 billion in a week led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, followed shortly afterward by Bitcoin prices nearing $126,000. The market has since pulled back but this level of institutional interest shows significant players have confidence in the prices at this level and are looking to buy.
Technical Perspective with Trading Implications
The consensus of analysts is to anticipate an increase to $115,000 to $118,000 and may potentially break the $120,000 level if buyers remain on the sidelines. As it stands, risk-reward currently favors some types of patience and upward growth towards support levels, with defined stop-losses if it cannot hold $111,000. Similarly, a confirmed breakout above $117,630 with volume confirmation would indicate the resumption of the broader uptrend and likely attract significant momentum capital.
On-chain metrics have a bit of reaction lag. The approximate $117,000 base cost means it is a natural ceiling for the market, while thin supply above current prices should indicate that once the resistance clears, the market is free to rise quickly. The traders need to keep an eye out for demand exhaustion at these levels.
Conclusion
In the coming weeks, we’ll find out if Bitcoin will be prepared to sustain an ongoing assault on the psychological $120,000 price level or if more consolidation needs to occur. The cost basis distribution is a considerable advantage to traders looking to project market behavior at key levels. As institutional flows continue and changes to on-chain data develop, these two key levels of $111,160 and $117,630 will be critical in determining the next directional move for Bitcoin.
