The gap between crypto’s current real-world asset footprint and where the largest banks see it heading is starting to look less like a forecast and more like a structural shift. Citi’s latest research puts hard numbers on that gap: a tokenized market that could swell from $17 billion today to as much as $5.5 trillion by 2030, with up to $8.2 trillion in an aggressive adoption scenario. The figures come via a recent Citi research report that maps a path where Wall Street’s core instruments—Treasuries, equities, and money markets—migrate on-chain at scale.
The report, titled Tokenization 2030: Wall Street On-Chain, sets a base case of $5.5 trillion in tokenized assets by the end of the decade, with a low-end estimate of $2.7 trillion if adoption lags. Citi expects 10% of the U.S. Treasury bill market and 3% of the public stock market to sit on blockchain rails. That alone turns tokenization from a niche experiment into a material slice of traditional finance. Meanwhile, stablecoins—already an $160 billion-plus market—are projected to generate about $1 trillion in fresh demand for U.S. Treasuries as reserve backing. A parallel shift by everyday U.S. investors, where 10% move to digital trading platforms, could create another $2.6 trillion in demand for digital stocks, according to the bank’s analysis.
The Treasury and Equity Overlap
Stablecoin issuers are already among the largest non-bank holders of short-dated U.S. government debt. Citi’s $1 trillion figure suggests that role will grow considerably, putting stablecoins in direct competition with money market funds for T-bill supply. That carries implications for market liquidity and yields, particularly if growth concentrates in a handful of dominant issuers. On the equity side, the forecast of a $2.6 trillion digital stock market assumes retail investors gradually move toward platforms that offer tokenized versions of traditional shares, blurring the line between exchanges and blockchain-based trading venues.
This convergence is already visible. The past quarter alone brought a string of moves that suggest infrastructure is being built ahead of the projected demand. As covered in a recent tokenization roundup, the total on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets recently crossed $20 billion, while Ondo Finance and JPMorgan executed the first live settlement using tokenized Treasuries. Those milestones align with the early-stage curve that Citi’s projections extrapolate from.
Institutional Bet or Regulatory Gamble
Bank research notes of this size are rarely neutral. They signal to clients and competitors where a major institution is positioning its balance sheet and advisory resources. Citi’s willingness to publish a multi-trillion-dollar forecast for tokenization suggests the bank sees revenue opportunities in custody, trading, and issuance of on-chain assets. The question is whether U.S. regulators will let that vision play out without friction. Recent legislative fights, including a push by traditional banking lobbyists to dilute a broad crypto bill days before a key Senate vote—detailed in this report on the banking industry’s last-minute maneuvers—illustrate the tension between legacy finance and on-chain market expansion.
If tokenized Treasuries and equities grow as Citi predicts, they will inevitably attract stricter scrutiny from the SEC, Federal Reserve, and Treasury Department. How those agencies classify tokenized securities—and whether they grant the same treatment as traditional instruments—will determine whether the $5.5 trillion figure becomes a ceiling or just a waypoint. The stablecoin question is equally unresolved. A market generating $1 trillion in Treasury demand is systemically significant, and policymakers will want guarantees on reserve quality, redemption rights, and issuer oversight before letting that market expand unchecked.
What the Forecast Leaves Unanswered
Citi’s projections hinge on adoption speed, which is notoriously hard to pin down. A decade ago, most analysts underestimated how fast stablecoins would grow. But tokenizing equity markets involves layers of legacy settlement infrastructure, legal clarity around ownership rights, and interoperability across blockchains—factors that do not move at crypto speeds. The range between $2.7 trillion and $8.2 trillion is wide enough to accommodate very different outcomes.
The report also highlights a concentrated winner-takes-most dynamic if a few blockchains or issuance platforms capture the bulk of activity. Ethereum currently dominates tokenized asset issuance, but competing layer-1 and layer-2 networks are aggressively courting institutions with lower fees and compliance-focused tooling. Which chain ends up hosting the majority of tokenized Treasuries or stocks is an open fight, and it will shape fee flows, validator revenue, and developer ecosystems for years.
For now, the numbers land as a signal. The world’s largest banks are no longer asking whether real-world assets will move on-chain. They are telling their clients how big the market could be—and quietly building the pipes to match.
