Grayscale’s research arm says Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 50% this year, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from over 60% to roughly 33% — a rotation the asset manager frames as the return of the “debasement trade.” In a note published on August 27 titled “Regime Shift: Bitcoin and the Return of the Debasement Trade,” Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said the shift may reflect renewed investor focus on Bitcoin’s scarcity, monetary independence and role as a store of value, according to Grayscale’s “The Stack” research series.
A Rotation Away From Tech Correlation
The 90-day figures mark a sharp reversal from recent years, when Bitcoin frequently traded in step with growth stocks. Pandl noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 slipped from more than 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold rose from near zero at the start of the year to above 50%. The numbers are backward-looking, drawn from a rolling 90-day window, and Grayscale presents them as evidence that investors are again treating Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than a leveraged bet on technology equities. The divergence underscores a broader re-rating of the asset this year.
The ‘Debasement Trade’ Returns
The shift arrives as U.S. federal debt passes $40 trillion and persistent fiscal deficits renew attention on the “debasement trade” — the argument that hard, supply-capped assets appreciate as fiat currencies lose purchasing power. Gold has already been on an extended bull run, a trend BlockchainReporter has tracked as Bitcoin’s defensive case returns to focus.
A More Favorable Regime for Scarce Assets
Pandl argued that Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable market regime, though he stopped short of any specific price target. The outlook is a company research view rather than a realized outcome: correlation describes how assets have moved, not where they will go, and a rolling 90-day window can shift quickly. Even so, the note lands at a moment when gold’s macro drivers are already reshaping Bitcoin’s sensitivity to risk assets. Grayscale, which runs one of the largest spot Bitcoin ETFs, has long argued the asset belongs alongside gold in diversified portfolios.
