With the Bitcoin Halving event scheduled for April 2024, Rekt Capital cites a market movement known as the Pre-Halving Rally which traditionally occurs around 60 days prior. Historically consistent, this year’s rally commenced slightly ahead of schedule, marking a period of price increases. Despite this early onset, *BTC* has already begun transitioning into the next phase, indicating a repeat of historical patterns.
Following the rally, Bitcoin enters the Pre-Halving Retrace phase, typically starting between 28 to 14 days before the Halving. Bitcoin has shown an 11% pullback this year in the last week, suggesting that the retracement phase may have also started earlier than expected.
Historically, retraces have been significant, with past events showing declines of up to 38% in 2016 and 20% in 2020 as per the analyst’s stats. However, this year’s retracement appears to be on the shallower side, considering the recent pullbacks of 18% in January and 14% in early March, followed by the current 11% decline.
Re-Accumulation Stage
Rekt cites that the retracement is then followed by a re-accumulation phase, lasting up to 150 days. This stage often frustrates investors due to the lack of immediate returns post-halving. He, however, warns that could be different as the re-accumulation might be shorter and form around new all-time high prices, possibly leading to a quicker return to uptrend continuation.
The final phase of the cycle is marked by a breakout from the re-accumulation phase into a parabolic uptrend, characterized by accelerated growth. Traditionally, this phase lasts for about a year. Nevertheless, with the current market dynamics suggesting an accelerated cycle, the duration of this phase could be significantly reduced.
