Silver is trading under pressure near $68 to $69 per ounce as investors weigh persistent inflation, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and a more cautious institutional outlook against an increasingly tight long-term supply picture. After losing momentum following its latest rebound, silver is approaching a technical zone that could determine whether the recovery extends above $70 or gives way to another correction.
The near-term silver price analysis remains closely tied to interest rates. Stronger US inflation data has increased expectations for another Fed rate hike before year-end, while traders are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for additional guidance. With the metal still trading near historically elevated levels, investors using a silver profit calculator can assess how different entry prices and potential moves around the $70 threshold could affect returns. At the same time, a fifth consecutive annual silver supply deficit and continued trend-following demand are providing fundamental support beneath the market.
Silver Slips Below $69 Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
Silver recently traded around $68.80 per ounce after posting modest gains in the previous session, with investors turning cautious ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. Markets are looking for signals on whether persistent inflation will force the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer.
Recent inflation figures have strengthened expectations for another rate increase before the end of 2026. According to CME FedWatch probabilities cited in the supplied news, markets see a 74% chance of a December hike, while the September meeting is expected to produce no immediate change, with a 65% probability of rates remaining unchanged.
That combination creates a near-term headwind for precious metals. Silver does not generate income, making higher interest rates and elevated bond yields potentially less favorable for the metal.
Still, underlying demand has not disappeared. Concerns about rising US debt and longer-term dollar weakness continue to support the so-called debasement trade. The US Treasury’s expansion of its debt buyback program has added to those concerns, potentially strengthening demand for hard assets if investors become increasingly cautious about fiscal conditions.
Systematic positioning also remains relatively constructive. TD Securities said CTA positioning across precious metals continues to hold firm, with its silver and platinum simulations indicating an increased probability of additional buying. That suggests the recent pullback has not yet triggered a broad exit from trend-following strategies.
JPMorgan’s $63 Silver Forecast Highlights Downside Risk
Institutional forecasts are considerably more restrained than some of the bullish scenarios implied by silver’s longer-term fundamentals.
J.P. Morgan Global Research expects silver to reach approximately $63 per ounce during the fourth quarter of 2026 and average roughly $70 across the full year. The bank lowered its previous outlook amid expectations for easing physical-market tightness, softer industrial demand in certain markets, and the possibility that global interest rates remain elevated.
The $63 target is particularly relevant because it sits close to an important technical level.
COMEX silver futures remain above their 50-week exponential moving average near $63.93. Despite the recent sell-off, holding above that moving average means the broader weekly recovery structure has not yet broken down.
Weekly RSI around 51.1 provides a similarly neutral signal. Momentum has improved from weaker readings during the correction, but it remains far from levels that would confirm another powerful bullish leg.
The physical market offers a counterargument to JPMorgan’s cautious forecast. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026 estimates a 40.3 million-ounce supply deficit, representing the fifth consecutive year in which demand has exceeded supply.
Persistent deficits do not guarantee rising prices, particularly when monetary policy is restrictive. They do, however, provide a structural factor that could limit downside if investment and industrial demand remain resilient.
Silver Price Analysis Puts $68.50 and $70 in Focus
The immediate technical setup is increasingly concentrated around the $68 area.
A short-term chart cited in the supplied news places resistance around $68.38, extending toward approximately $68.51. Silver’s rebound remains below that zone after the recent sharp decline, making it the first obstacle bulls need to clear.
Failure around $68.38 to $68.51 would preserve the bearish short-term structure and could put approximately $66.96 back into focus. Below there, the more consequential support area sits around the 50-week EMA at $63.93.
That makes the $63 to $64 region particularly significant. It combines a major weekly trend indicator with JPMorgan’s Q4 price target, meaning a decisive breakdown could strengthen the argument that silver is entering a deeper corrective phase.
The bullish scenario requires silver to establish itself above $68.50 and subsequently reclaim $70. A sustained move through $70 would weaken the immediate bearish setup and indicate that buyers are regaining control following the recent correction.
Silver therefore remains caught between two competing signals. Short-term monetary policy conditions favor caution, while the weekly technical structure, physical supply deficit, debasement concerns, and systematic demand continue to provide support.
CoinCodex Silver Price Prediction
According to the latest CoinCodex silver price prediction, silver could remain near current levels through the end of August before gaining significant momentum during the final months of 2026. The model sees an average price around $80.45 in September before climbing toward $95.47 in October, with the upper end of the October forecast reaching above $100.
The strongest upside is projected for November and December. Average prices rise to approximately $117.71 in November and $111.84 in December, while the most bullish scenario puts silver near $129.28. From current levels around $68, that would represent potential upside of roughly 87%, although the forecast is considerably more aggressive than JPMorgan’s $63 fourth-quarter target.
Momentum is expected to become more uneven in 2027. CoinCodex projects silver remaining around triple-digit levels early in the year before weakening toward averages of $82.50 in June and $73.87 in July, followed by a recovery toward $82.21 in August. Overall, the forecast points to late 2026 as the strongest potential phase of the rally, with considerably more volatility expected afterward.
