Basis trading is a trading strategy that profits from the difference between spot and futures prices of an asset. The spot price is the current price, while the futures price is agreed upon for a future transaction. The difference between the two is called the “basis.” Traders try to predict how this gap will change over time to make a profit.
For example, if apples cost $1.8 today, but your friend offers them for $1.40 next month, the basis is $0.40. This is a difference that traders rely on in an attempt to understand how it will change and they place a bet on it to make a profit.
Current Spot Prices and Futures Prices
The spot price is the current or present price of an asset which may be bought or sold at the present time. It represents the current market price. A futures price is different from the futures price because the latter refers to the price at which a particular commodity is to be bought or sold in a future contract. These prices usually differ because of costs of storage, interest rates, and expectations on the market.
The basis is defined more simply as the spot and futures price. For example, if corn today is $6 and the future price for corn in three months is $6.50 the basis will be -$0.50. These are tracked by traders to enable them forecast the next price volatility.
Long and Short Positions in Basis Trading
Basis trading allows a trader to go both long and short depending on the direction of change in the basis.
When going long traders expect the spot price to rise at a faster rate than the futures price. They expect this basis to expand. All traders who go short believe that the spot price will decline or that the price of the futures will increase at a faster rate. They anticipate that the basis will decrease.
Whether to go long or short is based on the market conditions, trends, and other any other factors that may affect the economy. This information is useful to traders who want to decide on the direction that the prices of their assets will be heading in the near future.
Basis Trading for Hedgers
It is also beneficial to producers and businesses to use basis trading in order to hedge the price risks. A wheat farmer for instance may use this theory to fear that prices may drop once they are harvesting. To hedge a price, the farmer can sell futures contracts which help to guarantee a price and thus minimize on risk.
In the same way, manufacturers including bakeries, employ basis trading in order to lock the prices for their inputs. They are free to sell at this price without worrying that price will go higher through futures contracts this is because they have locked in the price.
Speculators and Basis Trading
Basis trading is useful to speculators who hope to make a profit from the difference in the price of the commodity and the price of the futures contract. Hedgers are those who rely on the basis and try to forecast its change by studying trends and data by speculators.
For instance, if a trader expects the price of oil in the spot market to increase very soon, they will purchase the oil in the spot market then sell it in the futures market. They gain in case the spread between the two prices rises.
Another strategy in basis trading is Arbitrage. The difference between the spot and futures prices allows traders to make buying and selling transactions in two different price levels to make profits.
Markets for Basis Trading
Basis trading mostly applies to commodity markets including wheat, oil, and gold. Most of these have both spot and futures markets hence it is easier for players to engage in them. Basis trading is used by producers, such as farmers and energy firms, for risk management; traders for gambling on market trends.
The basis trade is also evident in the bond market. The spread of actual cash bonds against CDS is followed by traders. When the spread is reduced, it opens up possibility for arbitrage.
In the recent past, basis trading has been taken to the cryptocurrency market and especially to Bitcoin. Now, futures contracts and Bitcoin ETFs make traders search for the arbitrage opportunities between the current spot price of Bitcoin and its futures and ETFs.
Basis Trading: Risks and Challenges
There are certain risks associated with basis trading. The primary risk which hedge managers face is known as “basis risk.” This occurs when the spot and futures prices fail to behave in a predictable manner to one another. For instance, a farmer in a position to hedge against a price drop can be countered by weather pattern that alters the price up or down.
Another issue is liquidity The major issues that are likely to affect business development include: Traders have a problem with price entry and exit especially in markets that experience low turnover of stocks. During volatile periods, liquidity issues can worsen.
Moreover, basis trading involves the need of understanding the market fundamentals properly. Traders must be able to predict the price movement which is always quite a task not only for newcomers with little experience on the stock market.
Final Thoughts
The basis trading gives the trader an opportunity to gain from the difference between spot and futures prices. It has a risk management element for producers and profit making prospect for speculators. Hedgers use it to hedge on price risks while basis risk traders use it to forecast how the basis will fluctuate.
However, basis trading involves hefty analysis and understanding of the market situation. It contains risks such as basis risk and problems with liquidity. With this strategy, traders are in a position to apply it in trading commodities, bonds, or even cryptocurrencies.
