The market has started rewarding dip buyers again, but the on-chain ledger is not yet confirming a durable shift. Bitcoin is still trading below the roughly $68,500 short-term holder cost basis and the $75,800 true market mean. According to the market update covering Glassnode’s latest models, that pricing structure keeps the market inside a capitulation regime even as leveraged traders begin to lean long again.
The divergence is the story. Perpetual futures demand has turned positive, and ETF flows are stabilizing, but the Coinbase Premium remains negative. In plain terms, derivatives traders are willing to chase a bounce while U.S. spot buyers have not returned with enough force to confirm a change in regime. Glassnode’s read is blunt: until yields ease and the profit/loss ratio recovers toward 2, any Bitcoin rebound should be treated as a local rally rather than a broader trend reversal.
The Cost Basis Overhang
Price relative to cost basis matters because short-term holders often react to breakeven levels. With Bitcoin below $68,500, recent buyers are underwater on average. The true market mean at $75,800 sits even higher, so the broader market is also carrying unrealized losses. That creates overhead supply if price approaches those levels, which is a structural reason rallies keep fading even when futures positioning improves.
Glassnode’s framework puts emphasis on the interaction between those cost basis levels and realized profit/loss. A rebound can look healthy on a momentum chart while still failing to repair the damage recorded in on-chain spending behavior.
Capitulation Without Full Exhaustion
One metric keeps this cycle distinct. Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at only about 25%, far below the more than 60% seen in previous cycles. That could mean the market has not experienced the kind of cleansing flush that historically marks a bottom. It could also mean holders absorbed the drawdown better this time. Either way, it leaves less clarity about how much of the capitulation phase is already over.
The 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio sits at 0.75. That is above the sub-0.5 level associated with seller exhaustion in earlier downturns, but still well below the 2 level Glassnode says would indicate a recovering trend. In other words, sellers are not completely exhausted, and profit-taking has not returned in a way that signals real accumulation.
Spot Demand Is the Missing Variable
The negative Coinbase Premium is the cleanest signal that U.S. spot demand remains weak. ETF flow stabilization may sound supportive, but flows into listed products do not always translate into aggressive spot buying on U.S. venues. Derivative-led moves can unwind quickly when funding costs reset or liquidations cascade.
Institutional activity has been moving in different directions. Some money has flowed into tokenized real-world assets, as tracked in the latest weekly tokenization roundup, while weekly altcoin gainers have continued to draw speculative attention. That rotation can keep Bitcoin spot books thinner than the derivatives tape suggests.
Regulatory noise has not helped. With a Senate fight over U.S. crypto legislation still unresolved, some spot buyers may be waiting for clearer rules before adding exposure. The uncertainty is not new, but it matters more when price is below key cost basis levels and macro yields are still the main constraint.
The yield backdrop is the control variable. Glassnode specifically points to easing yields as a condition for trend reversal, which places the next move partly outside crypto’s own market structure. If yields do not ease, spot demand may remain muted even if futures traders press longs.
What to Watch Next
The thresholds are now defined. A sustained move back above the short-term holder cost basis would be the first sign that spot buyers are absorbing supply. A push toward the true market mean would be stronger still. The more important shift, however, is behavioral: the realized profit/loss ratio needs to climb toward 2, not just tick higher for a few days.
Until that happens, the market is in a position where sharp bounces can feel like recoveries but remain dependent on leverage. Local rallies are not failures in market structure. They are just not the same as a trend change, and Glassnode’s data draws that line clearly.
